With European elections in the UK now definite, political commentator Mike Indian, author of the Groucho Tendency blog, looks at what might happen. Will turnout be higher than usual, will the just-formed Brexit Party dominate as the polls are suggesting and what will the election mean for politics in the UK? Forecasting a UK General Election by the autumn, Mike assesses the state of the two main parties and looks at the runners and riders in the - eventual - contest for leadership of the Conservative Party.