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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Why ‘Non-Experimental Evaluation’ Matters

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Why ‘Non-Experimental Evaluation’ Matters
Outcome assessment is vital for all new initiatives, particularly political, but traditional academic research, which is sequential in character, is not good at responding to the speed of change in our modern world. This is particularly the case in tackling Child Poverty, for which a UK-Government Task Force is due to report later this Spring. If we are to break the cycle of deprivation with inter-generational rebalancing, we need a new sense of dynamism and responsiveness. Background music: 'Peony Morning' by TrackTribe

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: End of the Road for Universality

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: End of the Road for Universality
When Clement Attlee introduced welfare universality to post-war Britain, he was aiming for a more egalitarian society. Seventy-five years on we can see not only that it has not been achieved, but also that it has nearly bankrupted the public finances: a major task for UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves to tackle in her Spring Statement. Targeting support for those most in need with the help of philanthropy will be a key part of replacing 'egalitarian socialism' with egalitarian capitalism, enabling those with a social conscience to concentrate support and encouragement where it's needed, rather than providing publicly-funded services 'free at the point of use' for everyone. Background music: 'Everything Has a Beginning' by Joel Cummins Image source: Wikipedia

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Insuring Risks Unknown

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Insuring Risks Unknown
The past year has seen a litany of climate change disasters of which the wildfires in Los Angeles are the latest. Yet Americans still supported Trump's call to 'drill, baby, drill' in the presidential election. This is just the latest disaster that financial markets have to contend with. How much pressure can the insurance and investment markets take? The one thing that we know for sure is that, while the American people may have locked in their choice for the next four years, there's no such insurance for the bond market — it can strike at any time. Background music: 'Trap Unboxing' by Jimmy Fontanez_Doug Maxwell

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: The OBR should analyse generational impact

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: The OBR should analyse generational impact
The yellow-shaded column is the OBR's forecast for borrowing in 2028-29 as at March this year; the blue-shaded is their latest forecast. Is this really 'Invest, Invest, Invest' or 'Borrow, Borrow, Borrow'? The problem is that it all lands on the shoulders of today's young people, who will struggle more to find jobs after the employer NI changes and whose prospects of home ownership and family formation are already weighed down by student debt. Background music: 'Missing Persons' by Jeremy Blake

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: UK Budget on the Horizon

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: UK Budget on the Horizon
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents her first Budget on Wednesday 30th October after a major spending review. Her election commitments on tax rates and the priority she has given to restoring growth will limit the scope for raising further revenues, but there's plenty of room for re-balancing health spending by introducing mandatory health insurance for wealthy old folk. The balance between what comes in and what goes out is a struggle for almost all western democracies: in the United States, debt interest accounts for 76% of income tax receipts. In the UK it's 36%: still high, and that's notwithstanding the impact of frozen tax thresholds causing higher receipts, which would act to reduce that percentage. Background music: 'People Watching' by Sir Cubworth

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Inter-generational Logic

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Inter-generational Logic
UK Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson describes our current system for financing higher education as 'the worst of all worlds', and she's right. The combination of loan funding and universality has generated chronic problems for both students and universities. We need to apply inter-generational logic to address both this problem and the challenges faced by other disadvantaged young people from low-income backgrounds. The Times placed this story on its front page last Saturday, and re-introduction of maintenance grants for these young people will be part of the solution: this issue will clearly get some focus in the UK Budget on 30th October. Hopefully it will also include those other areas where focused help is needed for disadvantaged young people, including starter capital accounts and incentivised learning, with funding to be drawn from IHT receipts. Background music: 'Generations Away' by Unicorn Heads

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Summer at Last?

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Summer at Last?
It's been a long wait for summer this year, and we need to search for glimmers of hope as we approach the new political/economic/academic year. One such is the significant rise in Maths 'A' level entries, which will help young people find good careers. Another is the 0.25% reduction in interest rates: a cautious and close-run decision in times of considerable turbulence. Real interest rates are still 3%, so there's a long way to go. If the current rash of street riots allow it, we need to use the few weeks of summer calm to reflect on the big issues holding us back, including how to achieve a world without poverty. Background music: 'Solar Power' by Ashley Shadow

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Debt is the Achilles Heel of Democracy

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Debt is the Achilles Heel of Democracy
The scale of the nominal national debt is staggering, but when you add in unfunded pension schemes (state and public sector) and HM Treasury indemnities to the Bank of England it places a heavy load indeed on the new Chancellor. Her early career at the Bank of England and HBOS will have prepared Rachel Reeves well to tackle this challenge in her new role as Chancellor of the Exchequer; and she will be well aware of the heavy burden being placed on younger generations. Background music: 'Burden Laid Down' by The Westerlies

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Egalitarian Capitalism should replace Socialism

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Egalitarian Capitalism should replace Socialism
Most of us believe in personal freedom within a fairer society, but that combination isn't currently on offer from any of the political parties seeking your vote. It is, however possible — but you need to start young. Reducing the voting age to 16 might help a bit, but a more egalitarian way forward for capitalism calls for starter capital accounts and incentivised learning for disadvantaged young people. Then, you need to do something about wealth concentration brought about by the tech giants. Background music: 'Freedom' by Dan Lebowitz

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: AI — An Exciting and Fearsome Tool

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: AI — An Exciting and Fearsome Tool
Tools have accompanied us since the dawn of humanity, but few are as exciting and fearsome as Artificial Intelligence. That's why the Pope chose to talk to G7 leaders last Friday about this swiftly developing technology with his plea that politicians need to ensure that it benefits every human being. Artificial Intelligence is just one of the long-term concerns included in our pre-General Election survey, asking your opinion on issues not included in party manifestos: these include linking inheritance levies directly to inter-generational rebalancing, transforming the UK's welfare system, and reforming the 'second chamber' to enable proper long-term review of legislation. Please take part! Visit https://www.smartsurvey.co.uk/s/FU34N0/ Background music: 'The New Order' by Aaron Kenny

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