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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Why ‘Non-Experimental Evaluation’ Matters

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Why ‘Non-Experimental Evaluation’ Matters
Outcome assessment is vital for all new initiatives, particularly political, but traditional academic research, which is sequential in character, is not good at responding to the speed of change in our modern world. This is particularly the case in tackling Child Poverty, for which a UK-Government Task Force is due to report later this Spring. If we are to break the cycle of deprivation with inter-generational rebalancing, we need a new sense of dynamism and responsiveness. Background music: 'Peony Morning' by TrackTribe
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Gavin Oldham

The Bigger Picture: Spring Statement 2025

Gavin Oldham
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The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: Spring Statement 2025
Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves delivers her March '25 Spring Statement — this is an unabridged audio record of her speech to the House of Commons
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: End of the Road for Universality

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: End of the Road for Universality
When Clement Attlee introduced welfare universality to post-war Britain, he was aiming for a more egalitarian society. Seventy-five years on we can see not only that it has not been achieved, but also that it has nearly bankrupted the public finances: a major task for UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves to tackle in her Spring Statement. Targeting support for those most in need with the help of philanthropy will be a key part of replacing 'egalitarian socialism' with egalitarian capitalism, enabling those with a social conscience to concentrate support and encouragement where it's needed, rather than providing publicly-funded services 'free at the point of use' for everyone. Background music: 'Everything Has a Beginning' by Joel Cummins Image source: Wikipedia
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: BRICS in the Ascendancy

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: BRICS in the Ascendancy
As the United States descends towards economic turmoil as a result of its new-found isolationism and unreliability, the BRICS group of nations (including Russia and China) will be looking forward to a new dawn for their mainly autocratic regimes and potentially an opportunity to replace the U.S. dollar as the world's reserve currency. If western democracies, particularly in Europe, are to turn that tide, they must discover long-term governance, a new approach to targeted welfare working in partnership with philanthropists as opposed to universality, and a significant increase in democratic legitimacy for global governance. Background music: 'India Fuse' by French Fuse
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Calling for Tech Philanthropy

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Calling for Tech Philanthropy
Sam Altman, the tech entrepreneur who built OpenAI and its ground-breaking ChatGPT Artificial Intelligence functionality, correctly says that increasing equality may require new ideas. He's right: governments and political ideologies of many hues just can't deliver, besieged by conflicts of interest and debt. The Credit Suisse Wealth Distribution chart shows the huge contrast between those who are super-rich (in blue), the wealthiest of whom are the giant tech oligarchs, and those who live in real poverty, in red. It's time we accepted that 'The State', whether socialist or populist, can't deliver, and for philanthropists to step up to the plate, working in partnership with governments who still need to provide the necessary regulation and logistics. Background music: 'Resolution' by Wayne Jones Image source: Wikipedia
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: The Consequences of Currency Manipulation

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: The Consequences of Currency Manipulation
Whatever you may think of trade tariffs, there is no doubting the massive trade imbalance that has developed between China and the United States over the past three decades. Deliberate currency manipulation has enabled China to become the world's factory through resisting any meaningful appreciation of the Renminbi against the U.S. dollar. Parts of Europe have also suffered much economic damage as a result of the failure to balance out regional economic differences. If strong, accommodating economic control cannot be delivered, freely-floating currencies are the answer — but not tariffs. Background music: 'Something Is Wrong' by Sir Cubworth
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: How tech could lift the debt straitjacket

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: How tech could lift the debt straitjacket
Both the Office for Budget Responsibility and Andrew Bailey, Governor of the Bank of England, have warned of serious consequences for public finances if significant action isn't taken. The assumption is that this must be achieved by lifting growth in productivity. But what if the main impediment to traditional economic growth, as evidenced by GDP, is endemic demonetization brought about by advancing technology and automation? Is it time to look for a radically new approach which will allow everyone to participate in that wealth creation? Background music: 'The New Order' by Aaron Kenny
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Insuring Risks Unknown

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Insuring Risks Unknown
The past year has seen a litany of climate change disasters of which the wildfires in Los Angeles are the latest. Yet Americans still supported Trump's call to 'drill, baby, drill' in the presidential election. This is just the latest disaster that financial markets have to contend with. How much pressure can the insurance and investment markets take? The one thing that we know for sure is that, while the American people may have locked in their choice for the next four years, there's no such insurance for the bond market — it can strike at any time. Background music: 'Trap Unboxing' by Jimmy Fontanez_Doug Maxwell
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Walking into the Unknown

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Walking into the Unknown
Last week we focused on UK government debt: but it pales into insignificance when compared to U.S. national debt. Donald Trump has radical plans to apply tax cuts and huge import tariffs, but could this trigger a global financial crisis with no-one prepared to buy debt in a zombie economy? U.S. national debt has doubled to over $35 trillion during the ten years that Share Radio has been on air: both Democrats and Republicans have driven it remorselessly. A new approach to economics is needed which doesn't rely on either bigger government or lower taxes. Background music: 'Dark Alley Deals' by Aaron Kenny
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: The OBR should analyse generational impact

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: The OBR should analyse generational impact
The yellow-shaded column is the OBR's forecast for borrowing in 2028-29 as at March this year; the blue-shaded is their latest forecast. Is this really 'Invest, Invest, Invest' or 'Borrow, Borrow, Borrow'? The problem is that it all lands on the shoulders of today's young people, who will struggle more to find jobs after the employer NI changes and whose prospects of home ownership and family formation are already weighed down by student debt. Background music: 'Missing Persons' by Jeremy Blake
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