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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: The OBR should analyse generational impact

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: The OBR should analyse generational impact
The yellow-shaded column is the OBR's forecast for borrowing in 2028-29 as at March this year; the blue-shaded is their latest forecast. Is this really 'Invest, Invest, Invest' or 'Borrow, Borrow, Borrow'? The problem is that it all lands on the shoulders of today's young people, who will struggle more to find jobs after the employer NI changes and whose prospects of home ownership and family formation are already weighed down by student debt. Background music: 'Missing Persons' by Jeremy Blake
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: UK Budget on the Horizon

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: UK Budget on the Horizon
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents her first Budget on Wednesday 30th October after a major spending review. Her election commitments on tax rates and the priority she has given to restoring growth will limit the scope for raising further revenues, but there's plenty of room for re-balancing health spending by introducing mandatory health insurance for wealthy old folk. The balance between what comes in and what goes out is a struggle for almost all western democracies: in the United States, debt interest accounts for 76% of income tax receipts. In the UK it's 36%: still high, and that's notwithstanding the impact of frozen tax thresholds causing higher receipts, which would act to reduce that percentage. Background music: 'People Watching' by Sir Cubworth
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Falling birth rates unsettle the Vatican

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Falling birth rates unsettle the Vatican
Pope Francis calls for more focus on children, suggesting that in many countries pets take preference. If the hard-won values of gender equality are to benefit generations well into the future, western democracies need to help young people towards family formation. His comments may have been prompted by the collapse in Italian fertility rates to just 1.3 birth per woman: well below the 2.1 needed for a stable population. Background music: 'Young And Old Know Love' Puddle of Infinity
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Summer at Last?

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Summer at Last?
It's been a long wait for summer this year, and we need to search for glimmers of hope as we approach the new political/economic/academic year. One such is the significant rise in Maths 'A' level entries, which will help young people find good careers. Another is the 0.25% reduction in interest rates: a cautious and close-run decision in times of considerable turbulence. Real interest rates are still 3%, so there's a long way to go. If the current rash of street riots allow it, we need to use the few weeks of summer calm to reflect on the big issues holding us back, including how to achieve a world without poverty. Background music: 'Solar Power' by Ashley Shadow
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Debt is the Achilles Heel of Democracy

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Debt is the Achilles Heel of Democracy
The scale of the nominal national debt is staggering, but when you add in unfunded pension schemes (state and public sector) and HM Treasury indemnities to the Bank of England it places a heavy load indeed on the new Chancellor. Her early career at the Bank of England and HBOS will have prepared Rachel Reeves well to tackle this challenge in her new role as Chancellor of the Exchequer; and she will be well aware of the heavy burden being placed on younger generations. Background music: 'Burden Laid Down' by The Westerlies
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Egalitarian Capitalism should replace Socialism

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Egalitarian Capitalism should replace Socialism
Most of us believe in personal freedom within a fairer society, but that combination isn't currently on offer from any of the political parties seeking your vote. It is, however possible — but you need to start young. Reducing the voting age to 16 might help a bit, but a more egalitarian way forward for capitalism calls for starter capital accounts and incentivised learning for disadvantaged young people. Then, you need to do something about wealth concentration brought about by the tech giants. Background music: 'Freedom' by Dan Lebowitz
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: AI — An Exciting and Fearsome Tool

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: AI — An Exciting and Fearsome Tool
Tools have accompanied us since the dawn of humanity, but few are as exciting and fearsome as Artificial Intelligence. That's why the Pope chose to talk to G7 leaders last Friday about this swiftly developing technology with his plea that politicians need to ensure that it benefits every human being. Artificial Intelligence is just one of the long-term concerns included in our pre-General Election survey, asking your opinion on issues not included in party manifestos: these include linking inheritance levies directly to inter-generational rebalancing, transforming the UK's welfare system, and reforming the 'second chamber' to enable proper long-term review of legislation. Please take part! Visit https://www.smartsurvey.co.uk/s/FU34N0/ Background music: 'The New Order' by Aaron Kenny
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Assess the Individual, not just their Party

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Assess the Individual, not just their Party
Not my platitudes — but we do indeed need bold reforms, vision, groundbreaking solutions and to lead the edge of change. Our key concerns and calls for action are in this commentary, but they're not in the party manifestos: for example, the call to break the cycle of deprivation first made 50 years ago — we're still waiting. Euphemisms abound as the parties converge towards the central ground in the quest for your votes, but they draw together many different perspectives. Test them on issues such as a more egalitarian form of capitalism, smaller government, inter-generational rebalancing and a longer-term perspective — see where they stand as individuals. Background music: 'Hidden Agenda' by Kevin MacLeod, licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 license http://incompetech.com/music/royalty-free/index.html?isrc=USUAN1200102.
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Recognising Individual Achievement

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Recognising Individual Achievement
Individual achievement is recognised in many walks of life, and that recognition spurs people on to achieve even greater things. With education, good exam results and university entrance are celebrated, but this doesn't do much for those who find it difficult to get started in the first place. That's why The Share Foundation's introduction of incentivised learning is so important for young people in care, achieving an attitudinal transformation as they progress through the six-step Stepladder course. We need acceptance of incentivised learning to break the cycle of deprivation. Background music: 'Everything Has a Beginning' by Joel Cummins
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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Three Presumptions for re-thinking Politics

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Three Presumptions for re-thinking Politics
England delivered a withering verdict on its ruling Conservative Party last week, but the motley spread of replacement parties plus low turnout revealed a population thoroughly disenchanted by politics. Democracy is calling for a fresh perspective, based on reason and logic. We need to draw inspiration from people like Thomas Jefferson who said, 'We hold these truths to be self-evident: that all are created equal, that they are endowed with certain unalienable rights, and that among these are life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.' Background music: 'Freedom' by Dan Lebowitz
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