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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Why ‘Non-Experimental Evaluation’ Matters

Gavin Oldham
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Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Why ‘Non-Experimental Evaluation’ Matters
Outcome assessment is vital for all new initiatives, particularly political, but traditional academic research, which is sequential in character, is not good at responding to the speed of change in our modern world. This is particularly the case in tackling Child Poverty, for which a UK-Government Task Force is due to report later this Spring. If we are to break the cycle of deprivation with inter-generational rebalancing, we need a new sense of dynamism and responsiveness. Background music: 'Peony Morning' by TrackTribe

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Monopolies provide no answers

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Monopolies provide no answers
Abolition of NHS England reverses the de-politicisation of the health service, but it leaves intact all the inefficiencies of being a monopoly: thereby rendering people complacent and satisfied with mediocrity, unless they're moved by the Florence Nightingale mindset. Competition enables progress, efficient delivery and innovation, but most of all it respects individuals as customers, not simply treating them as account numbers. No wonder that the Competition & Markets Authority encourages government to use competition effectively on behalf of consumers. Background music: 'Hopeful Freedom' by Asher Fulero

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Democracy threatened by impoverishing the young

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Democracy threatened by impoverishing the young
Turnout at the 2024 general election was 59.7%, the lowest at a General Election since 2001, and 7.6 percentage points lower than in 2019. We are all keenly aware of the disproportionate number of Labour MPs (63.2%), notwithstanding their low overall polling (33.7%), but only now are we starting to see how young people have been disenfranchised by their poverty. This correlation between youth and poverty supports our consistent and strong calls for inter-generational rebalancing, and the need for more long-term focus in western democracies. If we don't take action, we run the risk of oscillating between an over-sized self-interested state driven by socialism and self-interested reactionaries driven by populism. Background music: 'Generations Away' by Unicorn Heads

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: A Matter of Life and Death

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: A Matter of Life and Death
Matters of life and death featured strongly in the House of Commons last Friday. thanks to Kim Leadbeater's Private Members' Bill on assisted dying — it's curious how the new UK parliament has developed such a fixation on 'end of life'. The Government's plans for inheritance tax might encourage people towards a serious look at philanthropy — register to join Philanthropy Impact's webinar on Donor Advised Funds, starting at 12 noon this Wednesday 4th December. Background music: 'Wandering Soul' by Asher Fulero Image source: Philanthropy Impact

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: The OBR should analyse generational impact

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: The OBR should analyse generational impact
The yellow-shaded column is the OBR's forecast for borrowing in 2028-29 as at March this year; the blue-shaded is their latest forecast. Is this really 'Invest, Invest, Invest' or 'Borrow, Borrow, Borrow'? The problem is that it all lands on the shoulders of today's young people, who will struggle more to find jobs after the employer NI changes and whose prospects of home ownership and family formation are already weighed down by student debt. Background music: 'Missing Persons' by Jeremy Blake

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: UK Budget on the Horizon

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: UK Budget on the Horizon
UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves presents her first Budget on Wednesday 30th October after a major spending review. Her election commitments on tax rates and the priority she has given to restoring growth will limit the scope for raising further revenues, but there's plenty of room for re-balancing health spending by introducing mandatory health insurance for wealthy old folk. The balance between what comes in and what goes out is a struggle for almost all western democracies: in the United States, debt interest accounts for 76% of income tax receipts. In the UK it's 36%: still high, and that's notwithstanding the impact of frozen tax thresholds causing higher receipts, which would act to reduce that percentage. Background music: 'People Watching' by Sir Cubworth

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Falling birth rates unsettle the Vatican

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Falling birth rates unsettle the Vatican
Pope Francis calls for more focus on children, suggesting that in many countries pets take preference. If the hard-won values of gender equality are to benefit generations well into the future, western democracies need to help young people towards family formation. His comments may have been prompted by the collapse in Italian fertility rates to just 1.3 birth per woman: well below the 2.1 needed for a stable population. Background music: 'Young And Old Know Love' Puddle of Infinity

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Summer at Last?

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Summer at Last?
It's been a long wait for summer this year, and we need to search for glimmers of hope as we approach the new political/economic/academic year. One such is the significant rise in Maths 'A' level entries, which will help young people find good careers. Another is the 0.25% reduction in interest rates: a cautious and close-run decision in times of considerable turbulence. Real interest rates are still 3%, so there's a long way to go. If the current rash of street riots allow it, we need to use the few weeks of summer calm to reflect on the big issues holding us back, including how to achieve a world without poverty. Background music: 'Solar Power' by Ashley Shadow

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Debt is the Achilles Heel of Democracy

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Debt is the Achilles Heel of Democracy
The scale of the nominal national debt is staggering, but when you add in unfunded pension schemes (state and public sector) and HM Treasury indemnities to the Bank of England it places a heavy load indeed on the new Chancellor. Her early career at the Bank of England and HBOS will have prepared Rachel Reeves well to tackle this challenge in her new role as Chancellor of the Exchequer; and she will be well aware of the heavy burden being placed on younger generations. Background music: 'Burden Laid Down' by The Westerlies

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Gavin Oldham

Thought for the Week: Egalitarian Capitalism should replace Socialism

Gavin Oldham
Original Broadcast:

Thought for the Week

Thought for the Week: Egalitarian Capitalism should replace Socialism
Most of us believe in personal freedom within a fairer society, but that combination isn't currently on offer from any of the political parties seeking your vote. It is, however possible — but you need to start young. Reducing the voting age to 16 might help a bit, but a more egalitarian way forward for capitalism calls for starter capital accounts and incentivised learning for disadvantaged young people. Then, you need to do something about wealth concentration brought about by the tech giants. Background music: 'Freedom' by Dan Lebowitz

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