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This Is Money: Could the 18-year property cycle really predict the next house price crash?

Georgie Frost
Original Broadcast:

This is Money

This Is Money: Could the 18-year property cycle really predict the next house price crash?
Another week, another house price index stating record growth. This time it was the turn of Nationwide, which said prices had risen 10.9% in the year to April, reaching a new high of £242,832 - up by £23,930 compared with 12 months earlier. Most experts say this is down to people's changing lifestyles during the pandemic and the incentive provided by the Government's stamp duty holiday. But are there other forces at play? Fred Harrison, a British author and economic commentator, successfully predicted the previous two property crashes years before they occurred - and his 18-year property cycle theory says that house prices should continue to boom before crashing in 2026. His theory is based on analysis of 300 years of data, and suggests that the underlying force behind rising prices in the property market is the finite supply of land. This, he says, combines with greed and speculation to turbo-charge sentiment and send prices spiralling before a bubble bursts. Given that early predictions of a house price crash during the pandemic were wildly inaccurate, does his model provide a better idea of what might really happen? Georgie Frost, Tanya Jefferies and Helen Crane also look at the other factors shaping the housing market, including tantalisingly cheap mortgages with two-year fixed rates as low as 0.99%. But aside from these headline-grabbing rates, the typical mortgage has actually become slightly more expensive in the last year - so why are experts saying locking in for five years is still a good idea? One group that isn't so happy about this year's house price increases is first-time buyers - especially those who took out Help to Buy loans a few years ago and are now paying back inflated sums into the Government coffers based on their homes' increased values. Helen discusses whether they should hold off paying back the loans in the face of spiralling interest - and whether today's first-time buyers should still consider using Help to Buy at what is widely tipped to be the top of the market. Do you want an 'essential', comfortable or luxurious retirement? New research explains how much you will need to put away to get the lifestyle you want in your later years. Away from housing, we talk about the latest research telling us how much we need for a decent retirement - depending on whether we want an 'essential', comfortable or more luxurious time of it in our older years. Tanya explains how much people should be putting away, and how that changes if you are single rather than part of a couple. We also discuss controversial comments made by Paul Johnson from the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS), who said most people don't need to worry too much about saving into their pension until they are in their 50s. Is it really wise for younger people to push pensions down their list of financial priorities? Finally, we answer a question from a reader who took £20,000 out of their pension pot to deal with Covid cashflow issues - but is now worried that their tax-free annual allowance has taken a hit.
Guests:

Helen Crane, Tanya Jefferies


Published:
Georgie Frost

This Is Money: Are you a Premium Bond winner or loser?

Georgie Frost
Original Broadcast:

This is Money

This Is Money: Are you a Premium Bond winner or loser?
Have Premium Bonds turned you into a savings winner, or are you one of the losers who have been missing out on prizes for years? We dive into Britain’s beloved savings lottery, looking at who holds the most Premium Bonds, who wins and who doesn’t. NS&I revealed exclusively to This is Money this week that an astonishing 43% of bonds are held by just 4.3% of savers – that’s £56billion out of the £107billion total. Or to put it another way every £2 out of £5 saved belongs to less than one million savers out of a total £21.4million. That may go some way to explaining why close to 75% of Premium Bonds savers haven’t won a prize in 14 years. Georgie Frost, Lee Boyce and Simon Lambert dig into the statistics, deliver a theory on how much you might need to hold to bag at least one prize a year, and look at whether Premium Bonds are worth having. They are certainly popular and that’s why Nationwide has launched a savings lottery – is that worth signing up to as well? In crypto-corner this week, we discuss the crash, the rebound and the slump again, along with banned adverts and Chinese crackdowns: is this the end of the recent hot phase or just another average week for bitcoin to take in its stride? Also, paying bills with commemorative coins – and what legal tender really means, why self-storage is the latest thing in short supply and who's investing Czech Sphinx?

Published:
Georgie Frost

This Is Money: Is a little bit of inflation really such a bad thing?

Georgie Frost
Original Broadcast:

This is Money

This Is Money: Is a little bit of inflation really such a bad thing?
The UK’s official inflation figure more than doubled to 1.5 in April, it emerged this week, as the stronger than expected recovery continued to push up the cost of living. Meanwhile a wave of demand is meeting a shortage of supply for some items, sparking fears of an inflationary spike. But while this is bad news for the pound in your pocket – which will buy less – and for savers, who will see their measly interest rates fail to keep up with how inflation erodes their cash, wasn’t the whole point of all that money printing and rate cutting to get a stronger recovery and inflation back towards the 2% target? Georgie Frost, George Nixon and Simon Lambert look at why inflation has become a hot topic, how it will affect savers and investors, and what it could mean for the game we all thought we could stop playing for some time: when will interest rates rise? George runs through the impact for savers, who now can't find an account that beats inflation, but he explains a trick to get a better rate through laddering; and Simon discusses what inflation could mean for investors and why the jam-tomorrow growth stocks that have delivered over the past decade may not be the ones to hold for the next ten years. Or will they? We also discuss moonshot investing and how backing disruptive companies that if they get it right, can absolutely take off and compound spectacular gains, has paid off for investors such as Scottish Mortgage. Simon highlights the academic research showing why most stocks don't make money and the most successfully often fall by 40%, as Scottish Mortgage's James Anderson highlighted in his recent fund manager's note. But is this attitude the same as that of the bitcoin true believers, who have been having their faith tested again this week?
Guest:

George Nixon


Published:
Georgie Frost

This Is Money: Holidays abroad are back on but would you book one?

Georgie Frost
Original Broadcast:

This is Money

This Is Money: Holidays abroad are back on but would you book one?
Holidays abroad are back on… or are they? The much-heralded green list proved to be something of a damp squib, with the only popular British holiday destination on there being Portugal. There was no place for Greece, France, Spain, Italy, the US, or other regular stars in the list of Britons’ favourite travel spots. Some rushed to book trips to Portugal, but travel giant Tui reported this week that holidaymakers are cancelling and delaying bookings and rival On The Beach scrapped all its summer holiday departures before the end of August. Concerns over Covid variants and worries about countries being rapidly pulled from the green list for travel are likely to prevent many from booking, but there is still a big desire from many vaccinated Britons to enjoy one their beloved trips abroad. So, will there be a surge of bookings, a last minute wait and see game, or a race to grab the few remaining staycation places during the summer holidays? Georgie Frost, Simon Lambert and Grace Gausden look at the state of play for the travel industry and holidaymakers – and how to protect your hard-earned cash if you do book. Highlighting the need to do just that, Grace explains why Teletext Holidays is under fire for still not refunding some customers for last year’s cancelled trips. Also, Simon runs through his anecdotal inflation theory and why trying to buy bikes or garden furniture, find a builder, or fill up a car tells a very different story to the official 1% inflation rate. He also explains why worries over higher inflation are causing markets to throw a wobbly. And finally, we all know about how the Bank of Mum and Dad has to fund many of their children when it comes to buying a home, but what if you need to help your parents buy a property? A reader asked if there is a potential tax trap – the team explain the answer.
Guest:

Grace Gausden


Published:
Georgie Frost

This is Money special: Build up a cash pot then buy and sell your way to profits: Never Go Broke

Georgie Frost
Original Broadcast:

This is Money

This is Money special: Build up a cash pot then buy and sell your way to profits: Never Go Broke
This week saw the launch of new book - 'Never Go Broke: How To Make Money Out Of Just About Anything', co-written by This is Money personal finance editor Lee Boyce. In this podcast special, Lee is joined from Los Angeles by his co-author, Storage Hunters TV star Jesse McClure, to explain all to Georgie Frost and Simon Lambert. Jesse and lee discuss how they met, how the book was created, and their three-step approach to putting more money in your pocket with a little bit of entrepreneurial endeavour and reselling. The book is broken down into three parts: how to build up a cash pot, learning the resale blueprint and investing the pot for resale profits. Step one is all about properly selling items in your home, making cash legitimately – and safely – online, and even making money from stuff you might think is trash. This is good both for your wallet and the environment. Step two sees Jesse outline some of the tips and tricks he uses everyday as a professional buyer and seller, while step three is all about hunting down spots to buy items to make even bigger profits – from car boots, to charity shops. While it won't make you a millionaire overnight, the pair believe it can be a great hobby, a way to stay afloat, or to set the foundations to becoming a professional at it. The authors also share some of Jesse's big wins and tips for getting started straightaway.
Guest:

Jesse McClure


Published:
Georgie Frost

This Is Money: Are you itching to spend after lockdown or planning to save?

Georgie Frost
Original Broadcast:

This is Money

This Is Money: Are you itching to spend after lockdown or planning to save?
Are you itching to spend or planning to save? Lockdown savers are forecast by the Office of Budget Responsibility to have stashed away £180billion by the middle of this year. That collective cash pile has been built up by those who have been fortunate enough not to see their finances hit by the pandemic, but have seen their outgoings drop substantially. We’ve already seen some big spending themes come out of this, as people splash out on everything from home improvements, to luxury garden furniture, expensive pizza ovens and hot tubs. The expectation is that as lockdown eases and people are released into the hoped for freedom that vaccines bring, they will go on a spending spree. But will that definitely happen and will the economic rebound be strong enough to create a virtuous circle that delivers the much-talked about Roaring Twenties? Or will people be more cautious and adopt their newfound savings habit more permanently? Georgie Frost, Helen Crane and Simon Lambert, dig into the save vs spend debate and look at how the giant behavioural and psychological experiment that lockdown represents might play out for the economy and people’s personal finances. Also on this week’s episode, the team look at both investing in the big themes of the coming decades and buying a holiday let for profit. And finally, if a fence comes down how do you find out who has to pay for it and is there any truth in the old ‘yours is the one on the left’ rule?
Guest:

Helen Crane


Published:
Georgie Frost

This Is Money: Are 95% mortgages to prop up the property market wise?

Georgie Frost
Original Broadcast:

This is Money

This Is Money: Are 95% mortgages to prop up the property market wise?
Life is tough for first-time buyers. House prices were already expensive before the coronavirus lockdowns and defying all logic a mini-boom has sent the average house price up £20,000 further over the past year. At the same time mortgage lenders have indulged in a flight to safety, canning the vast majority of 95% loan-to-value mortgages and bumping up the gap between rates on 90 per cent mortgages and those for borrowers with more equity. 'Once more into the breach' has stepped the Government, with taxpayer aid for banks and building societies to offer more 5% deposit mortgages. But is this a wise move? Should we stop meddling in the mortgage and property market, as short-term assistance ends up meaning long-term pain as more credit is extended and house prices climb ever higher? And could it be that while the 95% mortgage push is the wrong move at the national economic level, on a personal level taking one might prove a good move for some, who could end up paying less than they do in rent? Georgie Frost, Lee Boyce and Simon Lambert discuss the 95% mortgages, the rise in house prices and whether buy-to-let is still a good investment. Also this week, the lowdown on the Barclaycard customer service meltdown as long-standing customers see their credit limits slashed. And finally, you want a shed-office (aka a shoffice) to work in down the bottom of the garden, but can you power it with solar panels?

Published:
Georgie Frost

This Is Money: Was the Coinbase listing bitcoin and crypto's coming of age?

Georgie Frost
Original Broadcast:

This is Money

This Is Money:  Was the Coinbase listing bitcoin and crypto's coming of age?
Was the blockbuster Coinbase stock market listing a coming of age for bitcoin and cryptocurrency or a top of the bubble moment? The world’s leading crypto exchange platform listed on the US stock market this week and at one point hit a hefty $100billion valuation, before slipping back to $60billion. That’s still a very big number, especially for a business that made $322million last year. But Coinbase is profitable, its earnings are growing rapidly, it can cash in whether bitcoin and crypto prices rise or fall, and the cryptocurrency genie is well and truly out of the bottle. So, could it prove to be a Facebook or Google of the crypto world? Georgie Frost, Tanya Jefferies and Simon Lambert look at the Coinbase float and what it means for the crypto and investing world. They also discuss the Spac frenzy, how it’s leading to lucky dip investing for some but also more companies coming to market, and whether once you know what’s in a Spac it could ever be worth investing. Also, the team look at low risk investments that could be an alternative to a paltry 1 per cent five-year fixed rate cash Isa and Tanya updates on the women underpaid state pensions. And finally, Barclaycard has slashed customers’ credit limits and left many of them baffled and annoyed, so what on earth is going on?
Guest:

Tanya Jefferies


Published:
Georgie Frost

This is Money: Is working from home here to stay and how do you make a career leap?

Georgie Frost
Original Broadcast:

This is Money

This is Money: Is working from home here to stay and how do you make a career leap?
On Monday, we take a step towards normality – you can get your hair cut, have a beer outside at the pub and visit a clothes shop. But what about the future of the office? Will we ever go back full-time, or is a hybrid model more likely – and if you're tempted by a shed office, what should you look out for? On this week's podcast, Lee Boyce and Georgie Frost discuss the future of work and the pros and cons of WFH life, including the 'shoffice.' Elsewhere, should you claim home working tax relief and how much could you get for doing so? And what can you do if you want to change career, whether that is a huge leap or a 'bridging' one. Plus, are workers heading for a horrible shock when it comes to retirement and what can be done to navigate it?
Guest:

Simon Lambert


Published:
Georgie Frost

This is Money: What's behind the rising tide of financial scams?

Georgie Frost
Original Broadcast:

This is Money

This is Money: What's behind the rising tide of financial scams?
Financial scams are on the rise. The coronavirus lockdowns have seen a fresh burst of investment cons with fraudsters impersonating legitimate companies to steal tens of thousands of pounds. Unwitting savers are being lured into fake savings and investments, such as fixed term bonds or share schemes, and transferring large sums to fall victim to clone fraud. What’s behind this burst of crime and how can people protect themselves? On this week’s podcast, Georgie Frost and Simon Lambert discuss the rising tide of fraud, how to stay safe and what more can be done to combat it. Also, on the show, the pair look into the cases of the mortgage prisoners, trapped paying high rates ever since the financial crisis while others have seen their monthly payments slashed. The Deliveroo float is also on the agenda – why did the shares slump as it hit the stock market? And finally, campervans are in hot demand, making this a good time for VW to be launching its new mini Caddy California: with sleeping space for two and an optional tent that turns into a home on wheels for all the family. Would you want one?
Guest:

Simon Lambert


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