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Programme: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Barratt Developments, Redrow & housebuilders

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Barratt Developments, Redrow & housebuilders
Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at the housebuilding sector in the light of Barratt's bid for Redrow, a deal the market has not looked favourably upon. There is a severe shortage of new housing but it is a difficult time for housebuilders, with difficulties over planning and environmental rules and higher interest rates, Neil feels that the sector is cyclical and that, over the long term, the fundamentals are attractive for investors.
Guest:

Neil Shah

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Examining analysts' picks for 2023

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Examining analysts' picks for 2023
After quickly discussing what he found most interesting about the MPC's decision to hold interest rates, Russ Mould looks at A J Bell's 10th annual examination of analysts' research. He reveals that they are more bullish than ever, with 62% recommending buys and just 7% sells. This, he feels, is reasonable, given the long-term underperformance of the FTSE 100 Index. Pointing out the most popular shares, he also digs into what lies behind an analyst's recommendations and why they're better off not simply following the herd.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: 4imprint & Telecom Plus

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: 4imprint & Telecom Plus
Neil Shah returns to the subject of 4imprint after their year-end update. This well-run company making marketing promotional goods in the US surprised on the upside. Efficient and responsible, they are at a discount to a sensible price. He also looks at Telecom Plus, trading as Utility Warehouse, which provides all your utilities in a single service, using economies of scale to get the best deal for their customers, some of whom become evangelists for the company. This well-positioned business with a good model for growth should continue to expand and has a stickier clientele than the comparison sites.
Guest:

Neil Shah

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The outlook for 2024 and Gregg's

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The outlook for 2024 and Gregg's
Neil Shah of Edison Group feels that the bond market has now normalised whch could help the equity market, where many companies have stabilised after a tough year, although he points out that the US market looks peaky. He admires the outstanding quarter year results from Gregg's. The business appears to be in the sweet spot where value is important to customers with a healthy balance sheet and a great management team. It pays a yield but there is still plenty of growth left, although the rating clearly anticipates this.
Guest:

Neil Shah

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The governance checklist investors should use

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The governance checklist investors should use
Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the stability – or lack of it – of FTSE CEOs compared to football managers, with the former averaging 5.4 years against just 1.5 years. More seriously, he discusses his governance checklist, a fascinating series of questions investors should ask themselves before committing themselves to buying any particular company's shares.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Themes to watch for 2024

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Themes to watch for 2024
Russ Mould of A J Bell suggests the themes investors should watch out for in 2024. Equity markets seem optimistic while the gilts market – with an inverted yield curve – suggests a recession is likely and the commodity markets seem completely confused. Debt, however, is the biggest issue in the world, creating a headache for central banks. China, France and, soon, the US will all be using 20% of tax income for meeting interest costs. Scary enough in itself, if there's a recession, tax income will drop while welfare payments will soar. In summary, whatever has driven the markets in the past 10 years may not work for the 10 years, but there will always be opportunities.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Outperforming the FTSE 8 times & investing in AI

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Outperforming the FTSE 8 times & investing in AI
Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses his model portfolio The Illuminator which, sticking to certain parameters, has outperformed the FTSE 100 Index over 8 times since it started in 2008. He explains how it works, what's in it and reveals that, from January, it will be freely available to all. He also discusses an insightful interview with Polar Capital Technology Trust's Alastair Unwin. It reveals that the trust has pivoted to a 75% investment in AI and associated companies. Just 25 minutes long, investors can see it here: https://www.edisongroup.com/edison-tv/delving-into-ai-with-polar-capitals-alastair-unwin/33029/
Guest:

Neil Shah

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The dividend outlook for the FTSE 100

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The dividend outlook for the FTSE 100
Russ Mould of A J Bell has been crunching dividend numbers for the FTSE 100 index. Dividend forecasts for this year and next have fallen 10% over the past year and the jump in interest rates means that there is now more competition for investors' money. However, the market is expecting rate cuts and investors should remember that while fixed income is just that – fixed – companies can grow their dividends over time, with share prices adjusting as the dividends rise. Including extras such as buybacks (closed to private investors), the FTSE yields 6.9% and dividend cover is a decent 2.2 times. And while the market still seems undervalued, takeovers of UK companies (often smaller ones) by foreign buyers continue apace.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why the UK market is cheap and Natwest Bank

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why the UK market is cheap and Natwest Bank
Neil Shah of Edison Group explains why the UK market is extremely cheap internationally, which is why we are seeing companies being bought out. He says that domestic investors should not give up hope. Given that many large UK companies have substantial foreign interests, you can get foreign exposure more cheaply, while investment trusts have further attractions. As the Chancellor has said that the government's stake in NatWest will be sold down, Neil explains how to judge if it is worth buying into the bank when it happens.
Guest:

Neil Shah

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Follow the fundamentals, not politicians or index changes

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Follow the fundamentals, not politicians or index changes
Russ Mould of A J Bell says investors shouldn't get too excited by things like the Autumn Statement given that the government may change in less than a year, that if it was easy to pull a lever and energise the economy it would have been done by now and that the government and the Bank of England seem to be pulling in different directions. With changes imminent, he looks at the FTSE 100-Share Index. Who's in or out really doesn't make that much differnce and is far less important in the long-run than the fundamentals. Only 26 companies have survived over the index's 40-year history.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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