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Programme: The Bigger Picture
Presenter: Simon Rose
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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: Problems for the UK economy, Reform's danger to the Tories & the New Year ahead

Simon Rose
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The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: Problems for the UK economy, Reform's danger to the Tories & the New Year ahead
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University rounds off the year's Bigger Pictures by explaining why investors are getting spooked by the UK economy going from bad to worse. We are effectively back in the 1970s, he says, only, in some ways, it's even worse. Instead of effectively tackling the problem, politicians' heads are full of spaghetti. If Elon Musk contributes heavily to Reform, a psychological wall will break and the Conservative Party will face an existential crisis. And Tim looks ahead to what 2025 might bring, wondering where the unforseen Black Swans will come from.
Guest:

Professor Tim Evans

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: How to invest long-term when US debt is not just a problem but a predicament

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: How to invest long-term when US debt is not just a problem but a predicament
Tim Price of Price Value Partners explains why, despite the US market's Trump optimism, US debt has gone from a problem to a predicament. Most western governments are technically bankrupt but Tim points out that, contrary to popular belief, there is no real link between economies and stock markets. He explains his investment philosophy which stresses the importance of not losing money, ignoring the latest hot thing like the tech sector and investing in real assets such as gold and silver, now 20 years into a bull run. Silver, he says, is essential for industry and the green revolution but demand is greater than is being mined. He discusses long-term inflation and why he feels money is too important to be messed about with by central bankers and politicians.
Guest:

Tim Price

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: France's political turmoil, why Starmer is doomed & the surge of Reform

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: France's political turmoil, why Starmer is doomed & the surge of Reform
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University wonders if the French Fifth Republic can continue much longer, with its politics increasingly polarised. With the German economy in free fall, even the survival of the Euro may be in doubt. Tim finds Keir Stamer less the heir to Blair than to Wilson and Callaghan, believing he is a catastrophically bad PM who is avoiding anything meaningful while doubling down on his worst ideas. But the Conservatives may not benefit. Badenoch is not doing well enough and Reform could soon surge past the Tories as they professionalise and purge the nasties. Why should they do a deal with the Conservative Party if they could be elected on their own, asks Tim?
Guest:

Professor Tim Evans

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: The Assisted Dying Bill, net migration, the General Election petition & Davey's disc

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: The Assisted Dying Bill, net migration, the General Election petition & Davey's disc
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses Kim Leadbeater's assisted dying bill. Will Starmer's authority be damaged if it doesn't pass? Will it affect his releationship with Wes Streeting, who is against it? Mike reckons that, pass or not, assisted dying is likely to be law in 10 years or so. He also discusses the upwards revision in net migration to almost a million in a year. Although Labour weren't in power, it will be used as a lever to attack them. How can they get it under control? He also, briefly, looks at the mass petition for a re-run of the General Election and Ed Davey's bid for a Christmas #1 record.
Guest:

Mike Indian

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: European-style welfarism, the medical monopoly & the politics of the Tractor Tax

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: European-style welfarism, the medical monopoly & the politics of the Tractor Tax
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University discusses how the government wants to turn the UK into an EU-style higher-spending social democracy, not realising that the European model is falling off a cliff. With Germany in economic meltdown, he reveals that directors of German's biggest car manufacturers are considering moving the businesses abroad. He discusses the role of Physician Associates in the NHS and the problems caused by medical monopolies opposing supply-side reforms. And he assesses the Tractor Tax. While it might have the whiff of class warfare, he cannot see Labour retreating while the right is so disunited.
Guest:

Professor Tim Evans

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: Aftermath of Trump's victory, can he and Musk work together & Badenoch's win

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: Aftermath of Trump's victory, can he and Musk work together & Badenoch's win
Political commentator Mike Indian discusses the aftermath of Trump's unexpectedly complete election victory. He has the consent of the people, but what will happen in 4 years' time if he doesn't deliver. Elon Musk is in charge of delivering government efficiency but can the two men – similar in many respects – get along long term? If they can, it could have a transformative effect upon the USA. At home, Kemi Badenoch has had a strong start as Tory leader and could be good at keeping Keir Starmer on his toes. But she needs to be wary of being too spiky with people, particularly given the fractiousness of the remaining Conservative MPs.
Guest:

Mike Indian

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: The ramifications of Trump's victory & Kemi Badenoch as new Tory leader

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: The ramifications of Trump's victory & Kemi Badenoch as new Tory leader
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that the emphatic victory of Donald Trump will have huge consequences for the US and the world geopolitically. He will be helped by having done the job before, will go for energy dominance, try to slim the federal government, impose tariffs, cut illegal immigration and be radical on culture too. What might it mean for the country's relationship with the UK, whose government is going in a very different direction? He also discusses why he felt, from the moment she entered Parliament, that Kemi Badenoch was a fascinating politician and why a British-African leader of a major party is to be celebrated. But can she unite her party and make the Tories electorally significant again?
Guest:

Professor Tim Evans

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: Reaction to Rachel Reeves' first budget, the Tory leadership contest & the US election

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: Reaction to Rachel Reeves' first budget, the Tory leadership contest & the US election
Political commentator Mike Indian fillets Rachel Reeves' first Budget, with a massive increase in taxes, in large part to be paid by business, particularly through an increase in their National Insurance contributions. While the public sector will be getting considerably more money, it is important for the government to make the state more efficient. It is Mike's view that Reeves will be raising taxes more further down the line. He also looks at the Tory leadership contest but believes the new leader will not only not become PM but won't even be the leader in two years' time. As for the US election, the polls are tight – as always – and if there isn't a clear, outright win, we can expect a protracted and bitter aftermath.
Guest:

Mike Indian

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: Poaching young talent, British industry's voice & the truth about plastic recycling

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: Poaching young talent, British industry's voice & the truth about plastic recycling
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says the UK has to worry, not just about the top 1% who pay 29% of income tax leaving, but also young talent. They – the future high earners – are being tempted by offers from countries like Italy and Portugal. With an ageing population we could face an ever declining economic pie and get into a doom loop. Tim also considers why business (and indeed unions) have largely lost their voice and rarely speak up to defend their interests. With no robust argument we end up with soggy thinking and it's unhealthy. And he looks at how the science and economics of plastic recycling has not been properly thought through, producing unintended consequences, as so often with political short-termism.
Guest:

Professor Tim Evans

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: Budget lookahead, the Tory leadership contest & Alex Salmond

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: Budget lookahead, the Tory leadership contest & Alex Salmond
Political commentator Mike Indian looks ahead to the Budget, discussing whether Labour will be breaking its manifesto commitments, feeling that a time-limited wealth tax would be better than discouraging pension saving. He discusses the surprise ejection of James Cleverley from the Tory leadership contest, perhaps the one best placed to unify the party. He predicts that at the end of this Parliament, it will be Boris Johnson who is leader of the opposition. He also reflects upon the life of Alex Salmond, who so nearly became Prime Minister of an independent Scotland. He had flair and talent, though perhaps not integrity. The latter, in the long run, is more important in a politician.
Guest:

Mike Indian

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