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The Bigger Picture: Can Kamala Harris win, UK riots and Labour's public sector pay deals

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: Can Kamala Harris win, UK riots and Labour's public sector pay deals
Political commentator Mike Indian looks at the Democratic nomination of Kamala Harris for US President and how the likely outcome of the election has changed since Biden stood aside. Back in the UK, he discusses the recent riots, asks where it might lead and ponders whether we currently have a justice system we can be proud of. He also looks at Labour's pay deals with the likes of the train drivers and whether it will embolden other public sector workers.
Guest:

Mike Indian

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: The university crisis, China's economy is in trouble & demand for EVs is faltering

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: The university crisis, China's economy is in trouble & demand for EVs is faltering
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University explains why the UK's world-class universities sector is in crisis and that it ought to be no surprise to economists, given that it has effectively a politically-imposed price control system. There are solutions, though, if the will is there. In China there is a huge glut in industrial production, with 30% of industrial firms operating at a loss. China's GDP could be at least 40% smaller than we're being told. And, he says, it is now clear that EV demand is not behaving as the politicians would wish, with some companies now developing new types of petrol engines.
Guest:

Professor Tim Evans

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: Investing in an uncertain political & economic environment

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: Investing in an uncertain political & economic environment
Tim Price of Price Value Partners offers a guide to investing in uncertain times and why it is important not to judge your performance against others but in absolute terms. He explains why his fund avoids bonds but instead invests in: trend-following funds (all TFF funds made money in the dreadful markets of 2008); profitable, debt-free value stocks following the strategies of Benjamin Graham; and tangible, real, non-financial assets. He discusses the under-reporting of inflation and the problems caused by the US national debt of $35 trillion, increasing by $1 trillion every 100 days, pointing out that the UK situation is comparable. Tim's weekly commentary is available at https://www.pricevaluepartners.com/
Guest:

Tim Price

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: How is Labour doing, Who will be Tory leader & Can Reform be a professional party?

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: How is Labour doing, Who will be Tory leader & Can Reform be a professional party?
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University says that Keir Starmer feels more like a Prime Minister than Rishi Sunak. The big themes emerging from the new government are wealth creation and growth, reducing debt and building homes. Labour's competence could pose problems for the Conservatives. Tim runs through the candidates for the Leadership, with Badenoch and Jenrick the frontrunners. But the new leader may need to purge its left wing, as Labour has, if it is to see off Reform. Reform, for its part, has huge opportunities and challenges and must modernise and professionalise if it is to become a proper, grown-up party.
Guest:

Professor Tim Evans

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: How are Labour doing and what does Biden's exit mean for the Presidential election?

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: How are Labour doing and what does Biden's exit mean for the Presidential election?
Political commentator Mike Indian is surprised that so little attention has been paid to one of the more radical things in the King's Speech, the boosting of employment rights. He discusses the rebellion of 7 Labour MPs over the child benefit cap. While insignificant now with such a large majority, he feels that things could get trickier with such a broadly-based range of MPs from the second year onwards. He explains how much the American electoral landscape has changed with the exit of Joe Biden from the Presidential race. Harris, he feels, could be a serious contender against Donald Trump but that her choice of Vice President will be key.
Guest:

Mike Indian

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: Can Labour and Reform squeeze the Conservative Party into oblivion?

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: Can Labour and Reform squeeze the Conservative Party into oblivion?
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University found the King's Speech fascinating. He feels that if Labour can deliver 1.5m homes, reform the NHS and grow the UK economy, then it will cement its healthy electoral position. He wonders if the Conservatives can find the unity and clarity of strategy to survive, feeling that the party does not understand the hatred many of its former voters have for them. If Reform can capitalise on this, the Conservative Party may be in a much more precarious position than they realise.
Guest:

Professor Tim Evans

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: The General Election, Starmer at NATO & the future of Biden and the Tories

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: The General Election, Starmer at NATO & the future of Biden and the Tories
Political commentator Mike Indian analyses the General Election result, astonishing for its massive majority on a tiny vote share and the way it exposed the oddities of the UK election system, particularly with Reform getting more votes than the Libdems but just a fraction of their seats. With Sir Kier Starmer probably only having a brief honeymoon period, Mike hopes they will underpromise and overdeliver. With Starmer at the NATO summit, will Labour deliver the promised defence increase in this dangerous period? He explains why Joe Biden should step aside and looks at the future for the Tories, currently facing electoral irrelevance.
Guest:

Mike Indian

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: A history of the UK’s political parties — The Labour Party

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: A history of the UK’s political parties — The Labour Party
With the Labour Party taking the reins of power after a absence of 14 years, it's important to understand their journey. Here's a replay of Simon Rose joined by political commentator and author of The Groucho Tendency blog, Mike Indian, discussing how UK politics has got to the modern era. In this replay of an episode first broadcast in October 2019 when Jeremy Corbyn was its leader and just over two months before the December 2019 election, Simon and Mike discuss the history of the Labour Party.
Guest:

Mike Indian

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: Pre-Election Special and what might happen on 5th July and beyond

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: Pre-Election Special and what might happen on 5th July and beyond
Political commentator Mike Indian assesses the state of the nation a week ahead of the General Election, finding the political betting scandal just the latest nail in the coffin of a disastrous Conservative campaign. Although the Prime Minister acquitted himself well in the debate with Keir Starmer, with most postal votes already sent in, it is far too late to stop the Labour juggernaut. Which, though, will be the main opposition party? Could the Libdems return more MPs than the Conservatives. And will Labour end up with a "sandcastle majority"? Mike discusses what he expects to happen on 5th July and in the subsequent days, believing the real test for Labour will come during next winter when the reality of Britain's position could hit home.
Guest:

Mike Indian

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Simon Rose

The Bigger Picture: The main parties' political atmospherics

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Bigger Picture

The Bigger Picture: The main parties' political atmospherics
Professor Tim Evans of Middlesex University focuses on the "political atmospherics" or the "vibes" of the main parties. He considers this to be the only General Election in his lifetime that is more like a by-election, where most people are voting negatively. The Tories have essentially become the "untrusted socialists", as irrelevant as old Labour in the 70s and 80s. Labour is shapeshifting in a Tory Party way and could become the natural party of government. The LibDems are the closest to moderate old Labour while Reform UK are now the Thatcherites. As for the electorate: they are smart and don't change much.
Guest:

Professor Tim Evans

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