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Programme: The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors
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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How did 2024 turn out and what to watch out for in 2025

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How did 2024 turn out and what to watch out for in 2025
Contrarian that he is, Russ Mould of A J Bell was surprised that 2024 turned out pretty much as consensus had it, though few predicted the surge in Bitcoin. Looking ahead to 2025, he wonders what might knock growth and inflation off the rails. He recommends keeping an eye on government debt (growing scarily), world trade flows and tariffs, the dollar (a trade surplus would starve the world of its reserve currency), oil and food prices (important for inflation) and the Magnificent Seven (now so large that they will affect so much else).
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: A generational UK opportunity & 4imprint

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: A generational UK opportunity & 4imprint
Neil Shah of Edison Group highlights research claiming there may be a generational opportunity in the UK market, extremely cheap against other markets, particularly the US. The tide in sentiment may be turning and American investors are already looking to the UK to diversify and reduce downside risk. The company highlights 20 stocks in the report: https://tinyurl.com/56sj3h4u. Neil also returns to 4imprint. It is US based, where the promotional products market is highly fragmented. Through marketing efficiency, they are growing market share.
Guest:

Neil Shah

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: A decline in UK listings is not entirely negative

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: A decline in UK listings is not entirely negative
Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the Bloomberg piece pointing out that 45 firms have left the UK market this year through mergers and acquisitions. But is it such a bad thing that almost £50bn has gone to investors or that UK assets are both cheap and desired? It's true that the number of companies quoted in the UK has halved in 30 years but the decline has been true in the US and Australia too. We have too few tech and growth companies and too much stodge but the real problems have come from cheap debt – making riskier shares less attractive – and unduly tightened reporting requirements, making listing more laborious.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Focusrite & Accsys Technologies

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Focusrite & Accsys Technologies
Neil Shah of Edison Group discusses two companies he feels might be of interest to private investors. Focusrite, with a global market, has two divisions: content creation sells hardware and software while audio reproduction is driven by live music. Despite a torrid year or so they are investing in new product lines, have sound management and a good long-term record. Accsys Technologies has a technique to give softwoods the durability of hardwood for sustainable construction. While demand is never an issue, they were hit by delays with production. They've started to open up the US market, however, and their first half results were really positive. Although still only at breakeven, they seem now to have things right and are a company on the turn.
Guest:

Neil Shah

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Should we believe gilts or equities?

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Should we believe gilts or equities?
Russ Mould of A J Bell points out that supposedly risk-free 10-year gilts and corresponding instruments have risen despite interest rate cuts from central banks. At the same time, equities have been generally strong. In the US, the 10-year Treasury is now equal to the earnings yield on the S&P 500. Investors might be taking the extra risk anticipating upside potential but it could be seen as an early warning sign. In the UK, the earnings yield is double the 10-year gilt yield, making the domestic market look cheap, explaining all the takeover activity.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Tesla and Dowlais Group

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Tesla and Dowlais Group
Neil Shah of Edison Group says that since the Trump victory, Tesla's shares have added $300 billion. The market is betting that US policy will be supportive of Elon Musk and his company, which could benefit from a more protectionist approach. Although the fundamentals are challenging (the PE is 90-100), it relatively cheap compared to some AI stocks. In the UK, shares in Dowlais Group (spun out of GKN) rose on their trading update. As well as metallurgy, they are in the automotive components business and benefit from EVs as well as old-style vehicles. The forward PE is only 5 or so and the company should come increasingly into focus.
Guest:

Neil Shah

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The outlook for markets under President Trump

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The outlook for markets under President Trump
Russ Mould of A J Bell explains that US markets are strong in the wake of Trump's victory from a sense of relief that Harris didn't win. Trump wants to boost American growth, perhaps using tariffs, while at the same time wanting a weaker dollar. As the world's reserve currency, the strength of the dollar is of massive important. Russ discusses the Triffin Dilemma, which explains why the world needs a weak dollar and a continuing US trade deficit. Gold, he says, weaker on the stronger dollar, will be the ultimate tell.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Market reaction to the Budget and who might benefit?

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Market reaction to the Budget and who might benefit?
Neil Shah of Edison Group looks at Rachel Reeves' Budget. In advance, many peole were withdrawing money from investments but, although the gilts market has seen yields rise, there's a general air of relief that it isn't more draconian. He feels things should normalise in the coming weeks and that, with the UK still forecast to grow, it's a good investment climate. Low-margin, high-workforce sectors like hospitality and retail might suffer but with declining interest rates, real estate and housebuilders could benefit, as could companies associated with increased government spending in health, social care and education.
Guest:

Neil Shah

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Are UK banks worth a look?

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Are UK banks worth a look?
Russ Mould of A J Bell looks at the UK's main banks now that we're in the midst of results season. He points out that while the big five account for 11% of the FTSE's market cap, they produce 1/5 of pre-tax profits and 1/5 of total dividends. There remains a good deal of residual scepticism. They may yet be worth a look, despite the many possible adverse factors. Russ notes that cashbacks and dividends will see HSBC on a yield of almost 15% this year, with the others on 10-12%.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: London Tunnels & Card Factory

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: London Tunnels & Card Factory
Neil Shah of Edison Group finds London Tunnels' project fascinating. Despite the name, they are listed on Euronext and aim to turn the network of tunnels under Holborn Underground into a major tourist attraction. Although intended as air raid shelters they became a home for MI6 and ended up being used by the GPO. Details of a forthcoming presentation are on the Edison Group website. Card Factory is demonstrating that a combination of bricks and clicks could be more effective than a pure online operation. The company is expanding its product range, stores and its online business and is trading at a larger discount than it should be.
Guest:

Neil Shah

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