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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Rising gilt yields & what they mean for equities

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Rising gilt yields & what they mean for equities
Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the UK 10-year gilt yield rising over 4%, despite the Bank of England governor saying that interest rate cuts could happen more quickly. Why are equity markets both here and in the US more optimistic than fixed interest investors? In the UK we owe £2.5 trillion and have a £100 billion interest bill, so the government faces very difficult decisions. The only way to reduce the burgeoning debt/GDP ratio is through growth or inflation. It will probably be a combination of both and 2% may soon be the floor for the inflation rate rather than the ceiling. Russ discusses what this may mean for equities, with 28 of the FTSE100 companies yielding more than the 10-year gilt.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Greggs & Gresham House Energy Storage Fund

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Greggs & Gresham House Energy Storage Fund
Neil Shah of Edison Group sees little to disappoint with Greggs' Q3 results. It remains a hugely efficient machine which is great at understanding consumer needs. Opening new stores aggressively in the wake of Covid and expanding into evening service, it remains attractively priced. He also looks at the collective investment vehicle Gresham House Energy Storage Fund. It has performed poorly of late. But the long term opportunity is great as we pivot to renewables, which need battery energy storage and it is an interesting opportunity as it is at a significant discount. More information is on the Edison Website. (https://www.edisongroup.com/research/rising-revenues-and-big-plans-for-the-future/34011/)
Guest:

Neil Shah

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: US interest rates and UK market prospects

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: US interest rates and UK market prospects
Russ Mould of A J Bell discusses the Fed cutting rates by half a percentage point – rather high for the start of a cycle – and China's latest attempt at stimulus. In the UK, cyclical sectors are leading the way and the market benefits from being lower-rated and having more political stability, at least more than the US. The FTSE-350 also has an effective yield of 7.5%. Financial markets were not keen on Brexit but the pound is now almost back to pre-Brexit levels against the dollar, which will help suppress inflation, even if it crimps earnings and dividends.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: IP Group & Discoverie

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: IP Group & Discoverie
Neil Shah of Edison Group says that tech-focussed, early-stage venture capital company IP Group is worth taking a look at. With a market cap of £460m, some of the businesses it invested in are now quoted and, while the interim results reflected a difficult period, things are now improving. With some facinating things in the portfolio, the long-duration investor IP is at a 56% discount to net asset value. Discoverie creates and sources electronic designs and components and has just moved into security. It's an attractive long-term business with high returns yet is at a 27% discount to its peers. More info is on the Edison website (https://www.edisongroup.com/).
Guest:

neil shah

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why so many gold miners are being bid for

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Why so many gold miners are being bid for
In the wake of the AngloGold Ashanti bid for Centamin at 1.7x price/book value, Russ Mould of A J Bell explains why so many gold miners are being bid for. Russ points out that gold mining shares are at an all-time low compared to the gold price. And gold itself is no more expensive relative to equities than it was when Richard Nixon took the dollar off the gold standard. Combined with the fact that utiities are the top US performing sector, perhaps it indicates that, after 16 years of an extreme monetary exeriment, investors are expecting something nasty to crawl out of the woodwork.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Rightmove & Barratt Developments

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Rightmove & Barratt Developments
Neil Shah of Edison Group takes a look at two housing-related stocks. Rightmove has surged on talk of a bid. It's a jewel of a stock with something like 80% of the online estate agency market. This shows yet again how overseas investors consider the UK market undervalued. Neil believes Rightmove's model has amazing potential for AI. He also discusses Barratt Developments, which has just produced a tough set of full year results with profits down 75%. However, the mood music for the future is much more positive and there's a bit of a turnaround. While there's uncertainty over what the Budget will bring, Labour's desire to ramp up housebuilding could see them well placed.
Guest:

Neil Shah

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How do markets react to falling interest rates?

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: How do markets react to falling interest rates?
So far this year there have been 108 interest rate cuts worldwide. Russ Mould of A J Bell has crunched the numbers for 13 interest rate cycles and found that the All-Share Index averages a gain of 16.5% after 2 years from falling rates. However, with investors often anticipating cuts, markets are far more volatile for the first 3-6 months. Russ also considers whether very low rates are a good thing, pointing out that a quest for stability by central banks can ultimately lead to greater instability.
Guest:

Russ Mould

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Foxtons & Topps Tiles

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Foxtons & Topps Tiles
Neil Shah of Edison group looks at a couple of companies which will benefit from the cycle turning in response to declining interest rates. Both are related to the housing market. Estate agents Foxtons have a reasonably-new management team and their interim results show encouraging progress and seem reasonably valued. So too is Topps Tiles, which Neil has discussed on Share Radio before. They are expanding their commercial and online business and doing all the right things. There are notes on both companies on the Edison website: https://www.edisongroup.com.
Guest:

Neil Shah

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Vicky Sayers

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Is money still a man’s prerogative?

Vicky Sayers
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: Is money still a man’s prerogative?
Since the suffragette movement, women have had to work hard to gain autonomy in what was once very much “a man’s world”; and when it comes to finances, women are yet to achieve equality. Vicky Sayers is joined in this episode by Tamara Gillan, founder of the WealthiHer Network: created to inspire and empower women to grow and protect their wealth. They discuss the continuing economic inequality of the sexes, and the initiatives put in place by the WealthiHer Network to work towards equality. Replay from 20th March 2020
Guest:

Tamara Gillan

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Simon Rose

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The global diversified miners

Simon Rose
Original Broadcast:

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors

The Financial Outlook for Personal Investors: The global diversified miners
Andrew Keen, head of resources at Edison Group, discusses the global diversified miners. Although known for volatility and economic exposure, they are, he says, effectively commodity portfolio managers, a proxy for commodity baskets. While it is difficult for most private clients to research individual commodities and mining stocks, it is not hard to understand the large companies. However, when considering the majors, he suggests that investors should do their own ESG assessment.
Guest:

Andrew Keen

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